August 18, 1 p.m.
A tropical disturbance over the Bahamas now has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm before reaching Texas early next week. While the water is very warm and the wind shear is expected to be light, its development will be limited by having only about 2 days over those warm Gulf waters. Regardless of development, the tropical moisture is expected to move ashore with needed rainfall somewhere in Texas around Tuesday of next week. Most computer guidance pushes the deepest moisture over South Texas, which is why we only have a 40% chance of rain in the forecast for Houston. Rain chances and amounts are highly dependent on the track this system takes, so stay tuned for further updates.
August 18, 6 a.m.
The Atlantic is more active now, with four areas to watch that have an opportunity for development over the next week. The most likely candidate for development is in the eastern Atlantic; this has a high(70%) chance of forming by early next week. There is a moderate risk for development of a tropical wave just southwest of that first one, and another wave southwest of that has a low chance. All of these would track to the northwest with no threat to land.
We also have to watch for a low chance of development out of a tropical wave moving into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Conditions are favorable for development, especially with very warm water in place.
In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary exploded in intensity yesterday afternoon into the overnight, and is now a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. The storm will diminish in intensity as it nears Baja California over the weekend, but could still be a tropical storm as it nears the Mexico/U.S. border. This storm will bring heavy rainfall and life-threatening flooding to parts of Southern California.
August 17, 6 a.m.
The area of potential development in the Gulf of Mexico remains at 20% through the next 7 days. A tropical wave moving into the Gulf of Mexico Sunday could bring some beneficial rain to southeast Texas in the early and middle parts of next week, though there’s still plenty of uncertainty about exactly where the highest moisture (and thus best rain chances) will be. While models are not currently showing any significant strengthening of this potential system, we’ll continue to monitor it in case it becomes a bit stronger than models are expecting, especially considering the bath-water warm temps in the Gulf.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin we have two more tropical waves that have rolled off Africa and could become named systems, but neither is likely to have any impact in the Gulf.
August 16, 8 a.m.
The area of potential development in the Gulf of Mexico remains at 20% through the next 7 days. A tropical wave moving into the Gulf of Mexico Sunday could bring some beneficial rain to southeast Texas in the early and middle parts of next week, though there’s still plenty of uncertainty about exactly where the highest moisture (and thus best rain chances) will be. While models are not currently showing any significant strengthening of this potential system, we’ll continue to monitor it in case it becomes a bit stronger than models are expecting, especially considering the bath-water warm temps in the Gulf.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin we have two more tropical waves that have rolled off Africa and could become named systems, but neither is likely to have any impact in the Gulf.
August 15, 8 p.m.
The NHC has assigned a 20% chance to the Gulf for early next week. A tropical wave will move into the southeastern Gulf on Sunday, then move west towards the western Gulf on Monday. It’ll be moving into a somewhat favorable environment for development with extremely warm water and fairly low wind shear in place. More than likely it’ll just bring much needed rainfall to parts of the state but we’ll need to watch it closely in case it decides to come in stronger.
August 16, 6 a.m.
Two tropical waves to watch in the Atlantic this week. We are monitoring a weak area of low pressure in the far eastern Atlantic late in the week or over the weekend for potential development. Development of this system, if any, would be slow to occur. The NHC now has this as a 30% chance of development in the long range.
August 15, 6 a.m.
We are monitoring a broad area of low pressure off the west coast of Africa that could develop into a tropical depression over the next 7 days. And with several clusters of storms moving off the coast this week, there is a 20% chance one or some of those could develop into a tropical system over the next 7 days. Mind you, those odds are still low and that region is far away from southeast Texas.
August 14, 5 p.m.
It was only a matter of time before hurricane season came back to life. A broad area of low pressure could develop off the west coast of Africa. And with several clusters of storms moving off the coast over the next week, there is a 20% chance one or some of those could develop into a tropical system over the next 7 days. Mind you, those odds are still low and that region is far away from southeast Texas.
And in the eastern Pacific, Fernanda has strengthened to a category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 75 mph. The other two areas of development will likely become a tropical system over the next two days.
August 13, 7 a.m.
Tropical Storm Fernanda has formed in the Eastern Pacific, and flanking it are two more areas of potential development that could also soon become named storms. Despite the rapid increase in activity through the Pacific, none of the storms will have any impact on us.
Closer to home, the Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic all remain quiet, with no development expected over the next 7 days.
August 12, 6 a.m.
The Eastern Pacific is bubbling with activity, as there are now 3 separate areas of potential development to monitor. None of them will have any impact on us in Texas.
The Atlantic still remains quiet, with no activity expected over the next 7 days.
August 11, 6 a.m.
The Gulf and Atlantic remain quiet for now but there are signs we may see more tropical activity within the next two weeks.
And in case you missed it, the National Hurricane Center released their mid-season update to the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. They are now forecasting an above average season with an expected 14 to 21 named storms, 6 to 11 hurricanes and potentially 2 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3 or greater). This is an increase from their prediction in late-May which was for an average or normal season.
August 10, 10 a.m.
The National Hurricane Center released their mid-season update to the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. They are now forecasting an above average season with an expected 14 to 21 named storms, 6 to 11 hurricanes and potentially 2 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3 or greater). This is an increase from their prediction in late-May which was for an average or normal season. This increase is a bigger deal this year as it’s an El Nino summer, where conditions typically wouldn’t be as favorable for an active season. But the reason for the upgrade is what ABC13 Meteorologists have been talking about all summer: the record water sea surface temperatures in the gulf and deep tropics. NOAA forecasts believe these extremely warm water temperatures could counteract the usual unfavorable conditions an El Nino pattern could provide. Slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds and a near- or above-normal West African Monsoon were also key factors in shaping this updated seasonal forecast.
This seasonal update comes as we approach the peak of hurricane season next month on September 10th. And while plumes of Saharan dust are keeping the deep tropics quiet for now, there are signs that the dust could be limited later this month and allow for more of the tropical waves coming off of Africa to develop.
August 10, 6 a.m.
The Gulf and Atlantic remain quiet for now. Tropical development is not expected during the next 7 days. Meanwhile the Central and Eastern Pacific remains active with several tropical waves that could develop over the next several days. None of them expected to impact the US for now.
August 9, 6 a.m.
The Gulf and Atlantic remain quiet for now, meanwhile the Central and Eastern Pacific remains active. Hurricane Dora is still a Category 4 storm that will pass south of Hawaii. A tropical wave off the coast of Mexico has a medium chance for tropical development during the next 7 days. Neither storm will impact the US.
August 8, 6 a.m.
The Gulf and Atlantic remain quiet for now, meanwhile the Central and Eastern Pacific remains active. Hurricane Dora is still a Category 4 storm that will pass south of Hawaii. A tropical wave off the coast of Mexico has a medium chance for tropical development during the next 7 days. Neither storm will impact the US.
August 7, 6 a.m.
While the Gulf and Atlantic remain quiet, the Central and Eastern Pacific is active with two named storms. Hurricane Dora is a Cat 4 storm that will pass south of Hawaii, while Tropical Storm Eugene will move just southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Neither storm will impact the US.
August 6, 10 a.m.
While the Gulf and Atlantic remain quiet, the Eastern Pacific is active with two named storms. Hurricane Dora is a Cat 4 storm that will pass south of Hawaii, while Tropical Storm Eugene will move just southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Neither storm will impact the US.
August 5, 10 a.m.
In the Eastern Pacific we are monitoring Hurricane Dora and newly formed Tropical Depression Six-E. Neither storm will be any threat to the U.S.
The Atlantic Basin remains quiet for the next 7 days, though a series of tropical waves through the main development region combined with extremely warm water temperatures could yield some bubbling tropical activity later in the month.
August 4, 6 a.m.
While there’s no immediate activity in the Atlantic Basin, we are keeping our eyes on a few tropical waves that could potentially develop down the line. There are no threats to Texas over the next week or more.
In the Eastern Pacific things are much more active, with Cat 4 hurricane Dora as well as another disturbance off the coast of Mexico that could become the next named pacific storm. Neither of those storms are any threat to the United States.
August 3, 6 a.m.
Tropical development in the Atlantic has gone quiet for now and the tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific is starting to heat up.
Dora is now a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph but is no threat to land. We’re also monitoring an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for tropical development over the next 7 days. This system is expected to parallel the southwestern coast of Mexico.
August 2, 6 a.m.
There are currently no active tropical systems in the Atlantic, but a tropical wave in the central Atlantic continues to be monitored as it moves to the north-northwest. This system has a very low chance of tropical development as it fights dry air and strong shear. Impacts to Bermuda are unlikely as it passes to the east in the coming days.
August 1, 6 a.m.
We’re monitoring two areas of potential tropical development over the Central Atlantic. The first tropical wave has a 50% chance of development over the next 7 days, but will not impact the U.S. The second area of disturbed weather has a low chance of development. This system poses no threat to land.
July 31, 6 a.m.
We’re monitoring two areas of potential tropical development over the Central Atlantic. The first tropical wave has a 70% chance of development over the next 48 hours, but will not impact the U.S. The second area of potential development comes from a cold front that pushed off the Eastern seaboard of the U.S., and has a 30% chance of development. This system poses no threat to land.
July 30, 10 a.m.
There are two areas of potential development that we’re monitoring in the Atlantic basin currently. The first tropical wave has a 70% chance of development over the next 7 days, but will not impact the US. The second area of potential development comes from a cold front that pushed off the Eastern seaboard of the U.S., but is has just a 20% chance of development and also poses no threat to land.
July 29, 6 a.m.
Our plume of Saharan dust that we’ve been tracking will stick around through southeast Texas today, though the highest concentrations will likely hold off to our west. Some may notice a bit of haze or a flare up in asthma and allergies.
We also have our eyes on tropical wave that may become our next named storm. Regardless of development, this storm will curve out into the open Atlantic and have no impact on the US.
July 28, 6 a.m.
A large plume of Saharan dust will stick around in southeast Texas through Saturday. Individuals with asthma or allergies may want to minimize their time outdoors. Most of us will just notice a change to the color of the sky, but if you notice any health impacts, you may want to consider reducing your outdoor exposure through the end of the week.
In addition to the Saharan dust, we’re monitoring a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that has a medium chance (50%) of development later this week into early next week when it tracks closer to the Lesser Antilles and moves into an area of decreased wind shear in the central Atlantic.
July 27, 6 a.m.
A large plume of Saharan dust will stick around in southeast Texas through Friday. Individuals with asthma or allergies may want to minimize their time outdoors. Most of us will just notice a change to the color of the sky, but if you notice any health impacts, you may want to consider reducing your outdoor exposure through the end of the week.
In addition to the Saharan dust, we’re monitoring a tropical wave that has moved off the coast of Africa that has a medium chance (40%) of development later this week into early next week when it tracks closer to the Lesser Antilles and moves into an area of decreased wind shear in the central Atlantic.
July 26, 6 a.m.
A large plume of Saharan dust will stick around in southeast Texas through Friday. Individuals with asthma or allergies may want to minimize their time outdoors. Most of us will just notice a change to the color of the sky, but if you notice any health impacts, you may want to consider reducing your outdoor exposure through the end of the week.
In addition to the Saharan dust, we’re monitoring two low pressure centers in the Atlantic basin with low chances for development over the next 7 days.
July 25, 6 a.m.
We are monitoring a large plume of Saharan dust that is moving into the Gulf of Mexico and headed our way this week. The dust will arrive late Tuesday and will stick around in southeast Texas through Friday. Individuals with asthma or allergies may want to minimize their time outdoors.
In addition to the Saharan dust, we’re monitoring two low pressure centers in the Atlantic basin with low chances for development over the next 7 days.
July 24, 6 a.m.
We are monitoring a large plume of Saharan dust that is moving into the Gulf of Mexico and headed our way this week. The dust will arrive late Tuesday and will stick around in southeast Texas through Friday. Individuals with asthma or allergies may want to minimize their time outdoors.
We are also keeping an eye on a tropical wave approaching the Caribbean. Development odds are down to just 20% over the next seven days as the storm encounters more shear and Saharan dust.
July 23, 10 a.m.
The main point of interest in the tropics for Texas is the plume of Saharan dust that is moving into the Gulf of Mexico and headed our way this week. The dust will arrive late Tuesday and will stick around in southeast Texas through Friday. Individuals with asthma or allergies may want to minimize their time outdoors.
We are also keeping an eye on a tropical wave approaching the Caribbean. Development odds are down to just 40% over the next seven days as the storm encounters more shear and Saharan dust.
Last but not least, we briefly saw our first hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic season last night, as Don briefly strengthened into a hurricane in the open Atlantic. It’s already back down to a Tropical Storm and poses no threat to the U.S.
July 22, 10 a.m.
We’re monitoring a tropical wave that is moving toward the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center now has a 70% chance of development over the next seven days. There’s no immediate threat to Texas, but we’ll continue to watch this system for any signs that it may head into the Gulf. For now, most models are showing the storm eventually moving into Central America.
We’ve also got our eyes on some Saharan Dust, which should move into Houston by midweek and stick around through the upcoming work week.
July 21, 1 p.m.
In addition to our plume of Saharan dust expected to impact us next week, we’re keeping an eye on a tropical wave in the Atlantic that could develop into our next named storm. Right now, the NHC has development odds at 40% over the next two days and 60% over the next 7 days. There is no immediate threat to Texas, and it’s unlikely this wave even makes it into the Gulf. Just a system we’re keeping an eye on.
July 21, 6 a.m.
We are tracking a thick plume of Saharan dust that is likely to impact us next week. We are also monitoring a new tropical wave that could develop as it moves toward the Caribbean. Formation odds are low for now at 30% during the next seven days.
July 20, 6 a.m.
We are tracking a thick plume of Saharan dust that is likely to impact us next week. We are also monitoring a new tropical wave that could develop as it moves toward the Caribbean. Formation odds are low for now at 20% during the next 7 days.
July 19, 6 a.m.
We are tracking a thick Saharan dust cloud expected to arrive early next week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Don in the north-central Atlantic is no threat to land.
Tropical Storm Calvin in the Pacific is expected to approach the Hawaiian Islands Wednesday, bringing some rain, high winds, and rough surf.
July 18, 6 a.m.
We are tracking more Saharan dust arriving next week. A thicker plume is expected to arrive early next week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Don in the north-central Atlantic is no threat to land.
Tropical Storm Calvin in the Pacific is expected to approach the Hawaiian Islands Tuesday night, bringing some rain, high winds, and rough surf.
July 17, 6 a.m.
We are tracking more Saharan dust arriving this week. Meanwhile, Subtropical Depression Don in the north-central Atlantic is no threat to land.
Tropical Storm Calvin in the Pacific is expected to approach the Hawaiian Islands this week and could eventually bring some rain and high winds.
July 16, 6 a.m.
Tropical Storm Calvin is making its way toward Hawaii and could impact the islands Wednesday and Thursday. The good news is that the storm is weakening as it moves that way.
Closer to home, we’re watching a thin layer of Saharan dust that could lead to some haze and asthma flare-ups.
July 15, 6 a.m.
You may notice a bit of haze this weekend in Houston, in particular on Sunday, as a light plume of Saharan dust moves in.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, we’re watching Sub-tropical storm Don, which is weakening and will have no impact on the US. Meanwhile, in the Pacific, Hurricane Calvin could bring some rain and winds to Hawaii by the middle of next week, though it will no longer be hurricane-strength at that point.
July 14, 6 a.m.
A light Saharan haze will fill the sky over Houston Friday, but we’ll be monitoring a thicker plume early next week
Meanwhile, Subtropical Storm Don has formed in the Central Atlantic. This system is expected to remain over the Atlantic waters and have no threat to land.
Hurricane Calvin in the Pacific is strengthening. This system is expected to approach the Hawaiian islands early next week. It is too early to specify details regarding impacts to the islands; however, the likelihood of impacts could begin as early as Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Impacts to the state could include high surf, heavy rain, strong winds, or all of the above.
July 13, 6 a.m.
A small are of low pressure over the central Atlantic remains favorable for tropical development. The NHC gives this system a medium (60%) chance of formation during the next 7 days. This system is not expected to threaten the U.S.
We are also monitoring our first Saharan dust cloud of the season, which looks to bring an initial round of dust to Houston early next week.
July 12, 6 a.m.
A small area of low pressure over the central Atlantic remains favorable for tropical development. The NHC gives this system a medium (50%) chance of formation during the next 7 days.
We are also monitoring our first Saharan dust cloud of the season, which looks to bring an initial round of dust to Houston on Friday, with more of the haze to come next week.
July 11, 6 a.m.
There is a medium (50%) chance for tropical development during the next 7 days in the central Atlantic along a stalled out front that will be in the area. If a tropical system were to form, direct impacts on land are not expected.
In the East Pacific, we are continuing to watch one area off the southern coast of Mexico that has a high risk (90%) of developing over the next few days. If a tropical system develops, it is expected to drift west-northwest into open waters, not impacting the U.S. or Mexico.
July 10, 6 a.m.
The storm complex in the Atlantic that we’ve been monitoring is now up to a 30% chance of development over the next 7 days. The good news is that the storm is headed east, away from the U.S., and it poses zero threat to us.
July 9, 6 a.m.
Still no ongoing tropical systems in the Atlantic, but we are monitoring one area of potential development in the Atlantic. It has a 20% chance of development over the next 7 days but no chance of impact in the Gulf.
July 8, 6 a.m.
All is quiet throughout the entirety of the Atlantic Basic, with no current storms nor any expected development over the next seven days. We still need to stay vigilant as anomalously warm waters in the main development region as well as in the Gulf, could quickly spin up a storm.
July 6, 6 a.m.
Another surge of tropical moisture will allow for more rounds of scattered showers and storms Thursday, but that’s about it in terms of any “tropical” impacts expected over the next few days. Both the Atlantic and Gulf are quiet in terms of any organized tropical systems, with no development expected over the next seven days.
July 5, 6 a.m.
While Houston will play host to some tropical thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday, no organized tropical development is expected over the next seven days. This is mainly thanks to plumes of Saharan dust traversing the Atlantic this week, and no tropical development is expected this week.
July 4, 6 a.m.
With a few plumes of Saharan dust expected to traverse the Atlantic this week, no tropical development is expected this week. Locally though, warm gulf waters and a sea breeze could fuel some showers and storms Tuesday through Thursday.
July 3, 6 a.m.
The Atlantic Basin remains just the way we like it, quiet! We do have some very warm waters that could act as fuel for any storms, but there’s nothing in the immediate future that is expected to form. A batch of Saharan Dust is worth watching as it makes its way across the Atlantic, but no major impacts are expected.
July 2, 6 a.m.
In the short term there’s nothing brewing in the Gulf, Caribbean, or Atlantic waters. We’re watching a batch of Saharan dust moving across the Atlantic, which could reach Houston in about a week’s time.
July 1, 6 a.m.
All is quiet across the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Basin in general, with no active storms and no areas of potential development. We are watching two storms in the Eastern Pacific, Adrian, and Beatriz, the latter of which could bring such unsettled weather to the popular vacation destination of Cabo San Lucas in Mexico.
June 30, 6 a.m.
We are continuing to keep an eye on an area of disorganized showers and storms southeast of Bermuda. This area should develop into a broad area of low pressure, but it will be heading into an unfavorable environment for development which is why it only has a low chance of development as it moves north.
June 28, 6 a.m.
We have two areas of disorganized showers and storms in the Atlantic. The first are the remnants of Cindy and are not expected to develop. The second is southeast of Bermuda and has a low chance of development as it moves northward over the next seven days.
June 27, 6 a.m.
Remnants of Cindy are producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Atlantic. This system has a low probability (30%) of tropical development over the next seven days. It is expected to move generally northward over the western Atlantic, passing near Bermuda on Thursday.
June 26, 6 a.m.
Tropical Storm Cindy has weakened over the Central Atlantic. No other tropical development is expected at this time.
June 25, 6 a.m.
Tropical Storm Bret has faded away, and Tropical Storm Cindy is soon to follow. Neither storms are a threat to the United States.
June 24, 6 a.m.
Tropical Storm Bret is weakening as it moves into higher shear in the eastern Caribbean and will likely be just remnants of a storm by tomorrow. Right on Bret’s heels is Tropical Storm Cindy, which currently has max sustained winds of 60mph. Cindy is moving west-northwest and will soon weaken as it curves into the open Atlantic. Neither storm is a threat to Houston and is unlikely to have any direct impact on the US at all.
June 23, 6 a.m.
Tropical Storm Bret has moved into the eastern Caribbean but continues to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles. The storm is now entering a region of much higher wind shear. As a result, Bret is expected to lose wind intensity and transition to a tropical depression over the weekend as it tracks through the central Caribbean.
Besides Tropical Storm Bret, Tropical Storm Cindy has formed in the central Atlantic. Most models indicate this storm will begin to move more northwestward over the next day or so and will curve northward and miss the Leeward islands.
June 22, 6 a.m.
Tropical Storm Bret is getting stronger, with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph with higher gusts. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for St. Lucia, along with Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for other parts of the Lesser Antilles. Strong winds and heavy rains are expected for portions of the Leeward Islands later today and tonight.
Tropical Depression Four formed in the Central Atlantic. It is moving toward the west near 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to strengthen and become Cindy. This system is expected to remain east of the northern Leeward Islands through the weekend.
June 21, 6 a.m.
Tropical Storm Bret is getting stronger, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph with higher gusts. Some additional increase in strength is possible before Bret reaches the Caribbean Sea. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, and St. Lucia.
A tropical wave just east of Bret is still disorganized, but conditions appear favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form later this week while the system moves westward. Formation odds have increased to 80% during the next seven days.
June 20, 5 a.m.
Tropical Storm Bret is expected to strengthen as it moves west towards the Lesser Antilles.
Bret is expected to become a hurricane before reaching the Caribbean, and there is only one other hurricane on record to form east of the Caribbean in June. That hurricane occurred in 1933 and went on to become the most active hurricane season on record in the pre-satellite era. Bret is not a threat to Texas at this time.
A tropical wave just east of Bret is still disorganized, but conditions appear favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form later this week while the system moves westward-formation odds up to 70% during the next seven days.
June 19, 3:45 p.m.
It’s official: Tropical Storm Bret has formed in the deep tropics well east of the Caribbean. It is highly unusual for a storm to form this far out in the Atlantic at this time of year because, normally the waters are still too cool to support development. This year it’s a different story, with water already as warm as it typically is the first week of September!
Bret is expected to become a hurricane before reaching the Caribbean, and there is only one other hurricane on record to form east of the Caribbean in June. That hurricane occurred in 1933 and went on to become the most active hurricane season on record in the pre-satellite era.
Bret is not a threat to Texas at this time.
June 19, 10:30 a.m.
As of 10 a.m., we now have Tropical Depression Three, a tropical system that could become named Storm Bret by the end of the day Monday. This depression is currently located near the Lesser Antilles and is expected to strengthen throughout the day Monday, potentially becoming Tropical Storm Bret by the end of the day. The current extended forecast track has this system approaching the eastern Caribbean by week’s end, though echoing that this track is still highly variable. No threat to Houston as of now.
Aside from this system, there is another wave behind Three which we do not expect any development in the near term. The wave has a 30& chance of development over the next 48 hours 40% chance over the next seven days.
June 19
There are a couple of tropical waves that we are monitoring. A fairly robust wave continues to organize a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. This wave has a 90% chance of development over the next couple of days. A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form as this system moves to the west between 15 to 20 mph. No forecast models currently bring the storm into the Gulf, so it is not a concern to Texans.
Aside from this system, there is another wave behind the previous one, which we do not expect any development in in the near term.
June 18, 11 a.m. update
The tropical wave we’ve been watching in the eastern Atlantic is now up to a 90% chance of development over the next seven days. This will likely become Tropical Storm Bret in the coming days. No forecast models currently bring the storm into the Gulf, so it is not a concern to Texans, just a storm we’ll be monitoring.
June 17, 11 a.m. update
We’re still watching a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that has now been tagged by the National Hurricane Center as “invest 92-L”, which is just a potential system that they will begin forecasting for. The storm is up to an 80% chance of development in the next seven days, though it is extremely unlikely to have any impact here in Texas.
June 16, 7 p.m. update
The tropical wave off the coast of Africa now has a high (70%) chance of development over the next seven days. While we expect zero impacts here in Texas, its development may signal a more active season ahead than originally predicted by seasonal hurricane forecasters.
June 16
We’re monitoring a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that is now up to a 50% chance of development over the next 7 days. This potential storm is not at all cause for concern for Houston-area readers, as it’s still very far out. It’s just a typical wave that bears watching in the coming days, something we’ll do many times over with many similar waves as we progress through hurricane season.
June 15
Nothing is threatening to develop at this time, but we are seeing some Saharan dust in the eastern Atlantic. This dust is not expected to move into southeast Texas.
June 14
Nothing is threatening to develop at this time, but sea surface temperatures are rapidly rising and considerably warmer than average for this time of year.
June 13
Despite warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Basin, the tropics remain quiet for now. There is no tropical development expected in the next seven days.
June 12
Quiet conditions remain across the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Basin. There is no tropical development expected in the next seven days.
June 11
Despite warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Basin, we remain storm-free. There is no tropical development expected in the next seven days.
June 10
El Nino has officially arrived! An El Nino is typically identified by warmer than average waters in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific and tends to create higher wind shear during hurricane season, which in turn can help to limit tropical development. That being said, our sea surface temperatures remain extremely high, and an average hurricane season is expected. There is no tropical development expected in the next 7 days.
June 9
The Atlantic Basin is quiet, and no tropical development is expected through the next seven days.
June 8
The swirl of low pressure near the Azores no longer looks favorable for development. The Atlantic Basin is quiet, and no development is expected to occur during the next seven days.
June 7
The showers and thunderstorms located near the eastern Azores remain disorganized for now. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 10 percent chance for development during the next seven days. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics while it drifts to the east of the Azores.
June 6
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed weather located between the Azores and Canary Islands. At this point, showers and thunderstorms are disorganized and the NHC is giving this system a 10% chance for development during the next seven days. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics while it drifts to the southeast and east of the Azores.
June 5
There are no organized systems in the Atlantic Basin for now. What is left of Arlene will continue to shift east of the Bahamas today. Tropical development is not expected during the next seven days.
June 3, 4 p.m. update
Arlene was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone Saturday evening as the system approached Cuba. The 4 p.m. CT update will likely be the last one specifically for Arlene.
June 3, 11 a.m. update
Tropical Storm Arlene is now down to “Tropical Depression Arlene” after encountering the expected high shear and dry air, which has eroded the storm. No further strengthening is expected as Arlene moves north of Cuba.
June 3, 5 a.m. update
Tropical Storm Arlene continues to spin in the eastern Atlantic. The storm is moving southeast at 9 mph on its journey toward Cuba, but as it enters a higher-shear environment, it is expected to weaken. Arlene will likely be back down to a tropical depression later today-no impacts for Texas.
June 2, 12:40 p.m. update
Tropical Depression 2 is now Tropical Storm Arlene. Hurricane Hunters found strong enough winds to barely clear the threshold for a named storm. Nothing has changed regarding the forecast from our previous update.
June 2, 4 a.m. update
Tropical Depression 2 remains a weak and highly sheared system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. TD2 has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and is drifting south at 5mph into an environment with even more wind shear. That shear will keep this system from strengthening significantly, and while it may briefly become Tropical Storm Arlene, it looks more likely to stay a tropical depression before falling apart this weekend. There’s no threat to Texas, but some parts of Florida could see a few inches of rain as the system weakens and drifts south.
June 1, 4 p.m. update
Tropical Depression 2 is expected to become Tropical Storm Arlene briefly. The steering currents will push it south, where a combo of dry air and high wind shear will tear it apart on its way to Cuba this weekend.
June 1, 3:30 p.m. update
Well, that didn’t take long. On the first day of hurricane season, we have a newly formed tropical depression over the Gulf near Florida. The first forecast from the National Hurricane Center will come out by 4 p.m., but the steering currents should keep it far away from Texas.
June 1, 7:45 a.m. update
We are watching an area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf. Showers and storms associated with this low have shown some better organization over the past 12 hours. The National Hurricane Center has given this system a 50% chance of development in the next two days. Regardless of development, this system should continue to bring on and off heavy rain to the Florida Peninsula. There is no threat to Texas with this system.
The federal agency announced its forecast of 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine becoming hurricanes and one to four powering into major hurricanes with winds greater than 110 mph. Normal is 14 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes and three of them major hurricanes. NOAA has given us a 40% chance of having a near-normal season.
Hurricane season officially begins June 1 (although storms have been known to form before the start of the season).
RADAR MAPS:
Southeast Texas
Houston
Harris County
Galveston County
Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties
Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties
Brazoria/Matagorda Counties
During hurricane season, remain prepared and make sure you download our ABC13 Houston app!
